Glossary

Definitions for every term, metric, and signal used across Racing Edge.

Racing Fundamentals

SPStarting Price — the official odds recorded at the moment the race starts, used for all system settlement.
GoingThe ground condition of the track, ranging from Firm to Heavy. Affects horse performance significantly.
ClassRace grade from Class 1 (highest quality) down to Class 6 (lowest). Higher class races are harder to win.
Performance RatingTheRacingAPI's in-house performance rating (open-ended scale), the primary input to the value model from June 2026.
Speed RatingTheRacingAPI's in-house speed rating (open-ended scale).
RPR (legacy)Racing Post Rating — an independent assessment of a horse's ability based on past performances. Retired by TheRacingAPI in June 2026; retained in historical records only.
TS / TopSpeed (legacy)A speed figure calculated from the horse's last run. Retired by TheRacingAPI in June 2026; retained in historical records only.
OFR (legacy)Official Rating — the handicapper's assessment used to assign weight carried in handicap races. No longer a model input.
Form stringThe sequence of recent results. Numbers show finishing position, W = won, F = fell, P = pulled up, U = unseated rider, 0 = finished outside the first nine.

Model Metrics

EVExpected Value — the percentage edge the model believes exists over the bookmaker price. An EV of 30% means the model believes the true odds are 30% better than what the bookmaker is offering.
ProbabilityThe model's assessed percentage chance of the horse winning.
KellyKelly Criterion — a mathematically optimal staking recommendation expressed as a percentage of your betting bank.
Our/Mkt RatioHow much higher our model probability is versus the market implied probability, capped at 1.75× to avoid overstatement.
Base ScoreThe model's raw assessment of the horse's ability before market adjustment. A minimum of 50 is required to generate a tip.

Confidence & Signals

High ConfidenceEV above 40% and Kelly above 2.0 — the model's strongest conviction.
Medium ConfidenceOne of those thresholds met — reasonable value identified.
Low ConfidencePasses all filters but sits at the lower end of both ranges — worth monitoring.
SteamOdds moving significantly inward — the market is backing the horse heavily, informed money arriving.
DriftOdds moving significantly outward — the market is pushing the horse out. A negative signal.
Market ConfirmedA tipped horse that has steamed 20% or more since the morning tip was generated — the market is agreeing with the model.
MoverAn untipped horse whose odds have shortened by 25% or more since the previous snapshot — the market is backing it heavily. Flagged by Watcher as a positive market signal on an unselected runner.
DrifterAn untipped horse whose odds have lengthened by 25% or more since the previous snapshot — the market is pushing it out significantly. Flagged by Watcher as a negative market signal on an unselected runner.
Early Value AlertA tip generated at the 7:15am model run based on opening market prices. These are the system's earliest discoveries when the market is thinnest. The model has found a potential edge before the wider market has fully priced the runner. These tips may not survive the 10am confirmation run if prices move significantly — but if they expire it means the market moved toward our assessment, which is itself validation.
Confirmed ValueA tip that has been validated by the 10am model run against fully formed market prices. All five value filters have been checked at current odds. This is the highest quality tip signal the system produces. A Confirmed Value tip with a Steam Confirmed badge means both the model and the market agree on the selection.
Live IntelligenceThe ongoing stream of market signals generated by Watcher throughout the racing day. Includes STEAM and DRIFT on confirmed tips, and MOVER and DRIFTER on untipped horses. Live Intelligence does not change the confirmed tip list but provides important context for betting decisions. A tipped horse receiving a DRIFT signal after confirmation warrants caution. A tipped horse receiving a STEAM signal increases conviction.
Value ExpiredA morning tip invalidated by the 10am model run because the price moved too far. Shown greyed out on the tips page with the reason.
Win betA single bet on the horse to finish first.
Each wayTwo bets in one — a bet to win and a bet to place, at a fraction of the win odds.

Agents & Intelligence

Coming Soon

Racing Edge uses a suite of AI agents that gather and analyse intelligence on every runner. These agents and their signals will be explained here as they come online.

WatcherMonitors market price movements, detecting steam and drift in real time.
ScoutGathers pre-race intelligence from trainer quotes and Racing Post verdicts. Runs at 9:30am daily.
AnalystTracks form cycles and identifies horses on an improving trajectory. Runs at 8:30am daily.
CompassCourse and distance specialist identifying horses with strong track records at today's venue. Runs at 8:45am daily.
OracleConfluence scorer combining all agent signals into a single conviction score out of 100. Runs at 9:55am daily, before the 10am model run.
PriceJourneyWatcher records the full price movement of every runner from morning show to SP, building a historical pattern library used to identify which price movement profiles correlate with winners over time.